NFL Down the Stretch
As Bob Dylan sang, the times they are a-changin’ — especially in the NFL’s American Football Conference.
“Parity,” said Chuck Esposito, the book boss at Caesars Palace, wrapping the NFL’s current situation in a single word.
Highly-touted Indianapolis, which failed to make last season’s Super Bowl in the wake of the unexpected death of Coach Tony Dungy’s son, still began 2006 as a big favorite to represent the AFC in February’s mid-winter extravaganza, though the Colts lost three of four exhibition games.
But something happened on the way to Miami.
Indy stumbled in three of its last five games and allowed electrifying LaDainian Tomlinson and his San Diego teammates to knock the Colts off their pedastal and put quarterback leader Peyton Manning in his, uh, place, though run defense appears to be the biggest culprit.
Las Vegas bet shops this week boosted Super Bowl futures on Indy and New England, while lowering them on the Chargers and Ravens.
“San Diego is the best team in football right now, but we’ll see what happens down the road,” said John Avello, the veteran bookmaker who runs sports betting operations at Wynn Las Vegas.
Avello dropped the Chargers into the same 7/2 to 3/1 neighborhood where Chicago resides, while raising the Colts to 5/1.
“I’m trying to draw money on Indianapolis,” Avello explained.
Eric St. Clair, book boss at The Cannery in North Las Vegas and Rampart Casino in Summerlin, dropped San Diego to 2/1 and the Ravens to 5/1.
He upped Indianapolis to 6/1 and New England to 8/1.
“The thing with the Chargers is they haven’t been tested for a long time.”
San Diego last lost to Kansas City on Oct. 22; the Chargers also were beaten by Baltimore three weeks earlier.
They close out against Seattle and Arizona.
As the AFC stands now, San Diego, New England, Baltimore and Indy will win division titles, with Cincinnati and Jacksonville, having the best chance to get wild card slots and the Jets, Broncos and Chiefs considered long shots.
“Baltimore is our one liability with a legitimate shot to get there,” said Jeff Sherman, a Hilton oddsmaker and bet shop supervisor.
Sherman has admired the Chargers, Tomlinson, quarterback Phillip Rivers and linebacker Shawne Merriman right along — even more so with those major players healthy and all back in the lineup.
“I’m not sold on Indianapolis at all,” Sherman said.
“I don’t have much faith in its run defense.
“It’s going to be tough on the Colts, no doubt.
“It looks like they’d have to play San Diego in San Diego for the AFC title, if they get that far.
“No Colts’ home dome.”
Based substantially on Sherman’s opinion, the Hilton has adjusted its Super Bowl futures considerably.
The Chargers are 6/5, Indy and Baltimore 3/1 and New England 5/1.
Chicago, which has sewn up the NFC North Division title, grabbed home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a Week 15 victory over Tampa Bay.
The Saints, bolstered by the presence of Heisman Trophy running back Reggie Bush and former Chargers quarterback Drew Brees, have compiled the NFC’s second-best ledger behind the Bears’ 12-2.
New Orleans has a two-game South Division advantage over Atlanta, which is among NFC teams clinging to playoff hopes.
Dallas leads Philadelphia by one game in the East, while reigning NFC titlist Seattle has clear sailing in the West.
Despite their consistency and apparent mission, not to mention easy cover against St. Louis last Monday night, bookmakers still have questions about how good the Bears really are.
Doubts still center on quarterback Rex Grossman, who enjoyed one of his better outings against the Rams.
“I’m not sure he could be a second-stringer on most teams,” Avello said.
“He’s their biggest danger,” added Sherman, who has Chicago at 6/5 to win its second Super Bowl.
“You wonder what the Bears could do with a confident quarterback.”
Bookmakers appear skeptical about the NFC in general, though.
“There’s not much in the conference from what I see,” Avello said.
St. Clair has been impressed with New Orleans, to say the least.
“We all know how good Bush and Brees are and the Saints have been playing great ball,” he said.
“I guess the Bears are the best in the NFC and Grossman is halfway decent.
“It should be an interesting Super Bowl.”
The Hilton lists the AFC as a 4 1/2-point Super Bowl favorite and the total at 46 1/2.