Opportunities in NCAA Conference Play
I would like to discuss conference play in the NCAA. At my company we concentrate on four conferences and we find ample opportunity in these conference matchups each and every week. Not unlike NFL football where there is a ton of information and trends we use when teams play in their own division for the 2nd time around. In this article today I will let you in on a few secrets of the trade I have used that have made myself and my clients over the years a great deal of unit gains using these simple, yet effective methods.
The key to success in any endeavor is specialization. There are a ton of games on the board each week, and while I take a close look at them all, I find that concentrating your efforts on a finite number of teams helps you better know the trends and tendencies of each team in given scenarios. Let us take a look at a few items that will help you. Schools like Nebraska, Ohio State, Michigan, Florida State and in years past Notre Dame and Penn State always carry inflated lines against weak sisters in conference action. More times than not they cover those numbers, but there are exceptions when there is opportunity. A key for me has been to look ahead on the schedule and see whom they are playing next week. There is parity in college football. Most every team has talent, 300-pound lineman, guys that can hit like a freight train, and wideouts and running backs that can run 4.3 - 40 yard dashes. If any given team is not ready and prepared to play a game, they can be beat, and most assuredly cannot cover a big number. An example would be in the first week of this season in 2000 when Nebraska laid 50 points to San Jose State and did not come close to covering the number. Guess who they had on the schedule the next week? They played Notre Dame. In conference action when you have an Ohio State playing Michigan, take a good look at who they are playing the week before. If they are playing a weak sister in their conference, I can bet you a dime to a dollar they are laying a big number, even on the road, and chances are better than not they are looking ahead and will not cover. Another angle is homecoming in college football. Teams rise to the occasion, especially weaker teams that are playing a top team in conference action. When this scenario occurs you usually have a double-digit home dog, and there is value in this situation against the line.
There are revenge factors from the previous years meeting that you need to explore, and also there are allot of intra-state rivalries. A good example of this is the Texas and Oklahoma game every year. Both these teams have been battling in this contest, called the Red River War, for a long time. There is a huge emphasis on this game at both schools. It even takes on more importance now that both teams are in the Big 12 Southern division. The underdog in this series going into this year’s game was 10-5 ATS the last 15. Until Bob Stoops took over this OU team, the underdog was 9-2 ATS. OU has owned Mac Brown and Texas but as the gap gets narrower, the spread is getting wider, as OU was favored 4 1/2 in 2004 and won by over 40 points. This game is circled every year on my schedule because oddsmakers make it a tight line, yet OU is dominating the series the last 4 years, and I am finding opportunity with this series. In 2005, when Texas was on their way to winning a national title, REVENGE was apparent, and they laid a HUGE number in this game, and covered with ease, thus folloing trends and knowing revnege factors paid HUGE dividends. My Game of the Year 3 out of last 4 years has come out of this game and I have cashed them all! That is 12 Units of winners out of 1 conference game in 3 years of unloading on it.
When you are either handicapping professionally like myself, or doing it on your own, sometimes you can over analyze games and get to a point where you cannot see the forest because of all the trees! I am more of a situational analysis type of handicapper, and sometimes you find opportunity against the spread by looking at the simple things that it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out. Use these simple techniques for your college football handicapping and you will be units ahead at the end of the season.
Tony George is the owner of Midwest Sports Consultants in Lincoln, NE. In operation since 1992, Midwest is known as a very ethical, and non-hype organization with over 35 Top Ten awards from respected Monitoring Services since 1996. Tony’s plays can be found here daily at this site you are viewing.