Use Scare Cards to Win Pots
How you bet when a scare card hits is best determined by your read of your opponent’s playing style, playing position and chip stack size. Whether playing online or live, you should try to classify the other players as tight or loose, passive or aggressive. If your read is correct it could help you win 4 or 5 extras hands during your playing session.
For example, you receive a pair of queens (Qc, Qh) (or 10’s or J’s) from two seats off (right of) the dealer button. Only one player in middle position has entered the hand before you. You raise 3 times the big blind. Everyone to your left folds except for the big blind who calls. The middle position player re-raises to 6 big blind bets. You call. The big blind calls.
The flop is Ks, 9d, 6d.
The player in the big blind checks. The middle position player bets 3 big blind bets.
What do you do - call, raise or fold? The Ks is a definite scare card. This is where your read of the player , playing position and chip stack size comes into play.
The big blind checked. Your read is that this player is tight - passive. As a tight player, she only plays high cards and pairs of 8 or higher whenever a pre-flop raise was made by another player. She most likely is holding an A or K. She may have a K-T but being passive she is afraid to bet in front of your raise and the middle position players pre-flop re-raise. She may even feel that she is slow playing the top pair.
The middle position player is loose - aggressive. Being loose, he will bet with A-x, K-x, any two suited, connected cards. Thus, he may have K-x or he may be on a draw with a Q,J. Consistent to form, this loose - aggressive player makes it 3 big blind bets on the flop.
If your read of the players is correct, you are probably behind. What do you do?
RAISE!
There are 21.5 bets in the pot. Why concede this pot just because of the K? By raising you test your opponents convictions, gain further information about their hands and turn the scare card Ks into your strength, not weakness.
The tight - passive player, even with a Kh, Tc, might fold, fearing that your pre-flop raise and re-raise on the flop is representing an A-K, A-A, K-K or 9-9’s, especially if you have established a tight table image. She most likely would not put you on 6’s since they tend to play best in multi-way pots of 4 or more players. Your pre-flop re-raise was designed to thin the field.
Likewise, the loose - aggressive player might also fold if he is only on a draw such as Qh, Jc or hit just a middle pair with Ac, 9h.
Unfortunately, both players call your raise. There are now 36.5 bets in the pot. The turn card is 5d. The board is now Ks, 9d, 6d, 5d.
The 5d is another scare card. The tight - passive player checks, fearing a possible flush. The loose - aggressive player also checks since you re-raised him twice. If either player bets this second scare card then you are most likely beat. A bettor here is not afraid of your two re-raises or the 3 diamonds on the board. If bet into here, fold.
Otherwise, if both players check, BET again! Your lack of fear of the Ks or the 3 diamonds will make it very difficult for the tight - passive player even with the king or the loose - aggressive player with only a draw or middle pair to continue. Plus, you do not want to provide a free card that may make their hand. Nor do you want to show any weakness or hesitation at this point.
With 36.5 bets in the pot, BET THE POT! This puts intense pressure on your opponents. The tight - passive player will fold, convinced that her K -T is beat. Her passivity and lack of conviction will be her own undoing. The loose - aggressive player will fold. He was only on a draw or only had middle pair. It’s not worth 36 more bets to chase the draw or hope that you are only bluffing. If he does call you, you are actually still ahead. Your Q’s still beat his draw and dominate the 9’s. Again, your tight image makes this call very difficult.
The key to winning this hand came down to your read of your opponents. The high hand, the K’s, was held by the tight - passive player who you felt confident that you could bluff off the hand. The loose - aggressive player didn’t hit the K. Your re-raise of his flop bet revealed this when he checked the turn. A check raise by him on the turn would signal that he had the K’s or hit the flush. It is doubtful that he would check raise you with nothing when you’ve raised him twice already.
Again, the read of your opponent is key. If your loose - aggressive player is any of the following types then your ability to knock them off his hand will depend on his chip stack size. If your loose - aggressive player is a calling station and will chase any of his two card holdings to the river then this play may not work. Likewise, the loose - aggressive player who has been on a rush and has a solid stack of chips is not the best candidate to try to drive off his hand. Feeling invincible, this player may choose to challenge you with anything. As stated earlier, you may still be ahead but you will lose occasionally to this river chaser who lucks out and sucks out on you. And lastly, the loose - aggressive maniac will most likely call any bet. If both players who saw the flop are maniacs it is probably futile to try to thin the field unless the maniacs have only middling to small chip stacks. With so-so chip stacks even a maniac will be unable to bet into your strength with anything less than the top pair with top kicker, especially if your pot size bet will put half or more of their remaining chips at risk. However, even the maniac has to be smart enough to recognize the strength of the hand that you are representing. If he is a player that only plays his/her hand and never seems to think about what his opponents may be holding then this technique will not work.
In sum, scare cards need only be scare cards to your opponents. Don’t automatically muck your pair, such as Q’s, if a scare card hits. Before you fold, think about your opponents playing style, their relative position to you and their chip stack size Can they be knocked off their hand? If you bet the flop, can you reduce the field down to no more than two players? Ideally, no more than 2 other players even saw the flop. If your bet of the flop doesn’t thin the field then you are most likely behind. As with any hand, the more players in the pot, the less likely that a pair of Q’s or lower in rank will hold up to the river even without any scare cards on the board. With 3 or more players against you, one or more players is, most likely, holding an ace or king. Even if no ace or king hit on the flop, an ace or king will still hit on the turn or river 17% ( about 1 hand out of 6) of the time. Your flop bet must be large enough to get the tight player to fold his/her ace or king if the flop did not improve their hand. If as in the example above, the flop includes an ace or king, you may be able to use the above technique provided you are competing against no more than 2 players.
Remember, for this technique to work, your pre-flop raise or re-raise of a pre-flop raise must be large enough to thin the field to no more than 2 other players. With three or more players in the pot, your ability to knock that many players off of their hand is quite small. If 3 or more players call and an ace or king hit’s the flop then you are most likely beaten. When 3 or more players enter a strong pre-flop raised hand or re-raised pre-flop hand, you can safely assume that several aces and/or kings have been dealt or another pair or two has been dealt. With this many strong pre-flop hands to play against beware of a flop that results in two pair, if two high cards hit or trips.
Thus, if you’ve studied your opponents playing style, you have position on him/her and their chip stack is only middling or smaller then give this technique a try. Under the right circumstances, you’ll often be able to turn a scare card or two to your advantage rather than let it scare you from the hand.